We know that the housing industry is going through a challenging time right now. We know because it is all over the headlines. But we also know that the cycles of good times to slow times have been occurring in the country's housing market for the past 100 years. Good times will return again and there is a very good possibility that it will be 50+ Housing that will drive the upward turn.

We know the demographic statistics about the aging of our population. In the next 7 years the number of people 55+ will increase by 26%. Americans 55+ will head 40% of all the nation's households by 2012. By 2010 54% of our population will be over the age of 50, totaling 96 million people. By 2030 the number of Americans over 65 will double to 71 million. But let's look at how that can affect our local housing market. For simplicity I looked at a portion of the Kansas City metro area, Johnson County, Kansas for a quick evaluation of the Active Adult market.

A review of the 2000 Census shows that there are approximately 40,000 households in Johnson County with the head of household being age 55-74. Approximately 35,000 of those households own there home as opposed to rent. Around 88% or 30,000 of those homes were built before 1990 and 68% or 23,000 before 1980.

Just as our population is aging, so is our housing stock. Those of us involved in the 50+ housing market know that our buyers move because they want to get away from the maintenance hassles of their older homes or because they want to get away from the stairs and move to single-level living. Both of those problems are more common in the older housing stock and that is how this age group may lead the turn around in the housing industry.

Of the households age 55 to 74 who own their home that was built before 1990, if 10% per year decide that this is the time to make the move to single-level living, give up the stairs, down size to a smaller home or move to a "lock and leave", maintenance-provided lifestyle, that will require 3,000 new homes each year for these folks to move into. That is 3,000 homes that need to fit their new lifestyle and provide them a place where they can live for years to come without another move. A home in which they can live independently as they enjoy life and grow older. Those 3,000 new homes could provide a great base for the housing industry turnaround that is going to occur over the next couple of years. I don't know if in actuality the number will be 3,000. But, I do know that the number will be substantial and because of that we can all watch as our local market changes, from the more traditional 2-story family home, to the housing products needed to meet the 50+, Active Adult demand for housing. You can find many of those communities featured right here in the pages of NEW HOMES JOURNAL.


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